gold-forex

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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BrokerXP Reviews

BrokerXP Reviews

My perspective of How BrokerXP review help me and how can help you also.

In this review, we are taking a look at a trading platform that is used by traders all around the world. BrokerXP offers a varied range of financial products with competitive fees and an easy-to-use trading interface.
With advanced trading tools and charting features.

BrokerXP Slogan

BrokerXP Fees

If trading fees are important to you, then BrokerXP has you covered. BrokerXP offers low spreads that are available to all customers. For forex traders, BrokerXP has no fees at all, this means that you can maximize profits when trading currency pairs. The broker also offers a guaranteed stop-loss order which Is when clients get their stop-loss order rate guaranteed when setting a risk threshold in their position. BrokerXP also offers a 200:1 leverage ratio, which means that for every $1 in your account, you control $200 in the market. So if you are trading and don’t have much capital, you can still generate significant income as your profits can be multiplied by 200x. However, if you are a beginner then it is not advised that you use leverage on your trades. As profits are multiplied, so are losses. Before leveraging, learn the basics and trade using a demo account as this can stop you from losing too much money when you start trading actual capital.

BrokerXP Security

MT4 and BrokerXP have end-to-end encryption that secures trades and funds that are within the trading account itself. Imagine your trading account like a debit card, you wouldn’t put thousands of dollars in your debit card and leave it on a park bench. So when choosing what trading platform you want to go with, make sure that they take the security of your account and funds are serious as you do.
To find more answers please watch this video
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BrokerXP MT4

MetaTrader 4 is seen as the flagship trading platform, used by individual traders at home and large institutional investors alike. The platform is available on iPads, iPhones, Android phones, Android tablets, and just about any other web-enabled device. If you want to use the desktop version, instead of the web-app version, then you can download the desktop version and trade from the version. Once you’ve downloaded or loaded the platform, you can log in using your BrokerXP credentials. You can customize the charting interface, changing between light and dark mode, along with some other interface elements. Like with most online platforms, the security flaws come as a result of the customer not securing their side of things. This means that when you are trading, make sure to use long passwords that are difficult to guess and crack. Also, try and avoid trading on public computers as these can lead to your account being compromised.
On MT4 you will notice some phrases on the trading interface, here is some explanation of what they mean. When you see the Symbol tab, this means that you can choose between markets. BrokerXP offers many different trading asset options. You can trade forex, gold, stocks indices, and more. The volume tab is where you decide on your trading size. When you see 1 lot, this is equal to 100,000 units of the base currency. The Type tab is where you decide on your trade execution mode, we advise that you stick to ‘instant execution’ as this will place a trade as soon as your press ‘buy’ or ‘sell’. If you set a ‘pending order’, then the platform will make the trade when the market opens back up. The forex market is open 24/7, so this execution method will rarely be available. Stop-loss is another term that you may see on the MT4 interface, this means that your trades are exited when your profits hit a predetermined point.
Depending on what type of trader you are, the platform will offer you a specific set of charting timeframes that best suit you. For example, if you are day trading you may look at charts on a 10-minute timeframe. MT4 offers charting timeframes for 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day, and 1 month. You can also set custom timeframes in case the standard ones are not suitable for your trading technique.
Along with advanced timeframes, MT4 also offers 30 technical indicators such as the Elliot Wave indicator, Bollinger Bands, and pivot points, along with many more. There are also third-party add-ons that can be integrated with the platform in order to customize your interface further. Add-ons like Stealth Orders and Alarm Manager are two of the most popular addons. The first is an extension, Stealth Orders is designed to anonymize trades, with Alarm Manager helping coordinate alerts and notifications. With MT4, you can also create your own extensions using Java API, which is one of the platforms most advantageous features, as it can make everything unique.

BrokerXP Mobile Trading

The MetaTrader 4 mobile app is designed with the main focus being on ease-of-use. The mobile app is packaged with lots of research tools, advanced charts, and watch lists for scanning, with many more features.
When using BrokerXP’s mobile trading app (MT4), the look and feel of the mobile app have the same appearance as the web version. This means that if you know to operate the web-based platform, then the mobile app will be easy for you to grasp. With charting, you are given the same charts that are offered on the web app. However, due to the mobile screen being smaller, carrying out advanced forex analysis may be more difficult on mobile devices. But for making orders, setting stop loss or checking basic tasks, the mobile app is more than capable of doing so. The main benefit of using the mobile app is that you can make trades on the go. You no longer have to be at your computer or office in order to set trades. Let’s say that you make a trade at home then go grocery shopping. Whilst you are out you realize that you didn’t set stop-loss in your rush and your pair is depreciating when you check. Now, you can use your mobile to exit a position immediately, you don’t need to wait until you get home.

BrokerXP Customer Service

BrokerXP has a great dedicated customer service team, they are very professional and offer solutions to all of the problems that you could present them with. If you are a new trader, then you may encounter some problems when trying to get to grips with a new trading platform, so BrokerXP offers extensive educational resources. These educational resources are designed to help people familiarise themselves with the platform and all of the financial assets that are available to be traded on the BrokerXP platform. The MT4 platform also has a customer support team that is able to deal with any questions or issues that you are having on the trading side of things. MT4 also has a community section for traders, where questions about trading can get answered. A community forum is a great place for you to get tips about trading and non-essential things that the customer support team may not need to answer.
For customer service, you could read here and on this link.
To conclude, BrokerXP is one of the best choices for financial asset trading available.
Their low fees and advanced features make it perfect for beginners and pros alike.
For more reviews, you should visit official reviews on the website, Trustpilot and Sitejabber.
We highly suggest visiting also on Patch following links for more info and updated news
https://patch.com/california/los-angeles/calendaevent/20200929/898131/brokerxp-reviews-are-happening
https://patch.com/california/los-angeles/classifieds/announcements/171418/brokerxp-is-having-own-reviews-in-pacific-palisades
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Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

This article is taken from the Wall Street Journal written about nine months ago and sits behind a a paywall, so I decided to copy and paste it here. This article explains Trump's policies toward global trade and what has actually happened so far. I think the article does a decent job of explaining the Trade War. While alot has happenedsince the article was written, I still think its relevant.
However, what is lacking in the article, like many articles on the trade war, is it doesn't really explain the history of US trade policy, the laws that the US administration is using to place tariffs on China and the official justification for the US President in enacting tariffs against China. In my analysis I will cover those points.

SUMMARY

When Trump entered the White House people feared he would dismantle the global system the US and its allies had built over the last 75 years, but he hasn't. He has realign into two systems. One between the US and its allies which looks similar to the one built since the 1980s with a few of quota and tariffs. As the article points out
Today, Korus and Nafta have been replaced by updated agreements(one not yet ratified) that look much like the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas for autos. Furthermore, the article points out Douglas Irwin, an economist and trade historian at Dartmouth College, calls these results the “status quo with Trumpian tweaks: a little more managed trade sprinkled about for favored industries. It’s not good, but it’s not the destruction of the system.” Mr. Trump’s actions so far affect only 12% of U.S. imports, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In 1984, 21% of imports were covered by similar restraints, many imposed by Mr. Reagan, such as on cars, steel, motorcycles and clothing. Protectionist instincts go so far in the US, there are strong lobby groups for both protectionist and freetrade in the US.
The second reflects a emerging rivalry between the US and China. Undo some of the integration that followed China accession to the WTO. Two questions 1) How far is the US willing to decouple with China 2) Can it persuade allies to join.
The second is going to be difficult because China's economic ties are greater than they were between the Soviets, and China isn't waging an ideological struggle. Trump lacks Reagan commitment to alliance and free trade. The status quo with China is crumbling Dan Sullivan, a Republican senator from Alaska, personifies these broader forces reshaping the U.S. approach to the world. When Mr. Xi visited the U.S. in 2015, Mr. Sullivan urged his colleagues to pay more attention to China’s rise. On the Senate floor, he quoted the political scientist Graham Allison: “War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the moment.” Last spring, Mr. Sullivan went to China and met officials including Vice President Wang Qishan. They seemed to think tensions with the U.S. will fade after Mr. Trump leaves the scene, Mr. Sullivan recalled. “I just said, ‘You are completely misreading this.’” The mistrust, he told them, is bipartisan, and will outlast Mr. Trump. both Bush II and Obama tried to change dialogue and engagement, but by the end of his term, Obama was questioning the approach. Trump has declared engagement. “We don’t like it when our allies steal our ideas either, but it’s a much less dangerous situation,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute whose views align with the administration’s more hawkish officials. “We’re not worried about the war-fighting capability of Japan and Korea because they’re our friends.”
The article also points out unlike George Kennan in 1946 who made a case for containing the Soviet Union, the US hasn't explicitly made a case for containing the Soviets, Trump's administration hasn't, because as the the article explains its divided Michael Pillsbury a Hudson Institute scholar close to the Trump team, see 3 scenarios
Pillsbury thinks the third is most likely to happen, even though the administration hasn't said that it has adopted that policy. The US is stepping efforts to draw in other trading partners. The US, EU and Japan have launched a WTO effort to crack down on domestic subsidies and technology transfers requirement. US and Domestic concerns with prompted some countries to restrict Huawei. The US is also seeking to walloff China from other trade deals. However, there are risk with this strategy

ARTICLE

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

INTRODUCTION

My main criticism of this article is it tries like the vast majority of articles to fit US trade actions in the larger context of US geopolitical strategy. Even the author isn't certain "The first goes to the heart of Mr. Trump’s goal. If his aim is to hold back China’s advance, economists predict he will fail.". If you try to treat the trade "war" and US geopolitical strategy toward China as one, you will find yourself quickly frustrated and confused. If you treat them separately with their different set of stakeholders and histories, were they intersect with regards to China, but diverge. During the Cold War, trade policy toward the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc was subordinated to geopolitical concerns. For Trump, the trade issues are more important than geopolitical strategy. His protectionist trade rhetoric has been fairly consistent since 1980s. In his administration, the top cabinet members holding economic portfolios, those of Commerce, Treasury and US Trade Representative are the same people he picked when he first took office. The Director of the Economic Council has changed hands once, its role isn't as important as the National Security Advisor. While State, Defense, CIA, Homeland Security, UN Ambassador, National Security Advisor have changed hands at least once. Only the Director of National Intelligence hasn't changed.
International Trade makes up 1/4 of the US economy, and like national security its primarily the responsibility of the Federal government. States in the US don't implement their own tariffs. If you add the impact of Treasury policy and how it relates to capital flows in and out of the US, the amounts easily exceed the size of the US economy. Furthermore, because of US Dollar role as the reserve currency and US control of over global system the impact of Treasury are global. Trade policy and investment flows runs through two federal departments Commerce and Treasury and for trade also USTR. Defense spending makes up 3.3% of GDP, and if you add in related homeland security its at most 4%. Why would anyone assume that these two realms be integrated let alone trade policy subordinate to whims of a national security bureaucracy in most instances? With North Korea or Iran, trade and investment subordinate themselves to national security, because to Treasury and Commerce bureaucrats and their affiliated interest groups, Iran and the DPRK are well, economic midgets, but China is a different matter.
The analysis will be divided into four sections. The first will be to provide a brief overview of US trade policy since 1914. The second section will discuss why the US is going after China on trade issues, and why the US has resorted using a bilateral approach as opposed to going through the WTO. The third section we will talk about how relations with China is hashed out in the US.
The reason why I submitted this article, because there aren't many post trying to explain US-China Trade War from a trade perspective. Here is a post titled "What is the Reasons for America's Trade War with China, and not one person mentioned Article 301 or China's WTO Commitments. You get numerous post saying that Huawei is at heart of the trade war. Its fine, but if you don't know what was inside the USTR Investigative report that lead to the tariffs. its like skipping dinner and only having dessert When the US President, Donald J Trump, says he wants to negotiate a better trade deal with other countries, and has been going on about for the last 35 years, longer than many of you have been alive, why do people think that the key issues with China aren't primarily about trade at the moment.

OVERVIEW OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE ORIENTATION

Before 1940s, the US could be categorized as a free market protectionist economy. For many this may seem like oxymoron, how can an economy be free market and protectionist? In 1913, government spending made up about 7.5% of US GDP, in the UK it was 13%, and for Germany 18% (Public Spending in the 20th Century A Global Perspective: Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi - 2000). UK had virtual zero tariffs, while for manufactured goods in France it was 20%, 13% Germany, 9% Belgium and 4% Netherlands. For raw materials and agricultural products, it was almost zero. In contrast, for the likes of United States, Russia and Japan it was 44%, 84% and 30% respectively. Even though in 1900 United States was an economic powerhouse along with Germany, manufactured exports only made up 30% of exports, and the US government saw tariffs as exclusively a domestic policy matter and didn't see tariffs as something to be negotiated with other nations. The US didn't have the large constituency to push the government for lower tariffs abroad for their exports like in Britain in the 1830-40s (Reluctant Partners: A History of Multilateral Trade Cooperation, 1850-2000).
The Underwood Tariffs Act of 1913 which legislated the income tax, dropped the tariffs to 1850 levels levels.Until 16th amendment was ratified in 1913 making income tax legal, all US federal revenue came from excise and tariffs. In contrast before 1914, about 50% of UK revenue came from income taxes. The reason for US reluctance to introduced income tax was ideological and the United State's relative weak government compared to those in Europe. After the First World War, the US introduced the Emergency Tariff Act of 1921, than the Fordney–McCumber Tariff of 1922 followed by a Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. Contrary to popular opinion, the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 had a small negative impact on the economy, since imports and exports played a small part of the US economy, and the tariffs were lower than the average that existed from 1850-1914.
Immediately after the Second World War, when the US economy was the only industrialized economy left standing, the economic focus was on rehabilitation and monetary stability. There was no grandiose and ideological design. Bretton Woods system linked the US dollar to gold to create monetary stability, and to avoid competitive devaluation and tariffs that plagued the world economy after Britain took itself off the gold in 1931. The US$ was the natural choice, because in 1944 2/3 of the world's gold was in the US. One reason why the Marshall Plan was created was to alleviate the chronic deficits Europeans countries had with the US between 1945-50. It was to rebuild their economies so they could start exports good to the US. Even before it was full implemented in 1959, it was already facing problems, the trade surpluses that the US was running in the 1940s, turned to deficits as European and Japanese economies recovered. By 1959, Federal Reserves foreign liabilities had already exceeded its gold reserves. There were fears of a run on the US gold supply and arbitrage. A secondary policy of the Bretton woods system was curbs on capital outflows to reduce speculation on currency pegs, and this had a negative impact on foreign investment until it was abandoned in 1971. It wasn't until the 1980s, where foreign investment recovered to levels prior to 1914. Factoring out the big spike in global oil prices as a result of the OPEC cartel, it most likely wasn't until the mid-1990s that exports as a % of GDP had reached 1914 levels.
Until the 1980s, the US record regarding free trade and markets was mediocre. The impetus to remove trade barriers in Europe after the Second World War was driven by the Europeans themselves. The EEC already had a custom union in 1968, Canada and the US have yet to even discuss implementing one. Even with Canada it took the US over 50 years to get a Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA was inspired by the success of the EEC. NAFTA was very much an elite driven project. If the Americans put the NAFTA to a referendum like the British did with the EEC in the seventies, it most likely wouldn't pass. People often look at segregation in the US South as a political issue, but it was economic issue as well. How could the US preach free trade, when it didn't have free trade in its own country. Segregation was a internal non-tariff barrier. In the first election after the end of the Cold War in 1992, Ross Perot' based most of independent run for the Presidency on opposition to NAFTA. He won 19% of the vote. Like Ross Perot before him, Donald Trump is not the exception in how America has handled tariffs since the founding of the Republic, but more the norm.
The embrace of free trade by the business and political elite can be attributed to two events. After the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, a strong vested interest in the US in the form of multinationals and Wall Street emerged advocating for removal of tariffs and more importantly the removal of restrictions on free flow of capital, whether direct foreign investment in portfolio investment. However, the political class embrace of free trade and capital only really took off after the collapse of the Soviet Union propelled by Cold War triumphalism.
As mentioned by the article, the US is reverting back to a pre-WTO relations with China. As Robert Lighthizer said in speech in 2000
I guess my prescription, really, is to move back to more of a negotiating kind of a settlement. Return to WTO and what it really was meant to be. Something where you have somebody make a decision but have it not be binding.
The US is using financial and legal instruments developed during the Cold War like its extradition treaties (with Canada and Europe), and Section 301. Here is a very good recent article about enforcement commitment that China will make.‘Painful’ enforcement ahead for China if trade war deal is reached with US insisting on unilateral terms
NOTE: It is very difficult to talk about US-China trade war without a basic knowledge of global economic history since 1914. What a lot of people do is politicize or subordinate the economic history to the political. Some commentators think US power was just handed to them after the Second World War, when the US was the only industrialized economy left standing. The dominant position of the US was temporary and in reality its like having 10 tonnes of Gold sitting in your house, it doesn't automatically translate to influence. The US from 1945-1989 was slowly and gradually build her influence in the non-Communist world. For example, US influence in Canada in the 1960s wasn't as strong as it is now. Only 50% of Canadian exports went to the US in 1960s vs 80% at the present moment.

BASIS OF THE US TRADE DISCUSSION WITH CHINA

According to preliminary agreement between China and the US based on unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal article US, China close in on Trade Deal. In this article it divides the deal in two sections. The first aspects have largely to do with deficits and is political.
As part of a deal, China is pledging to help level the playing field, including speeding up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on car ventures and reducing tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current auto tariff of 15%. Beijing would also step up purchases of U.S. goods—a tactic designed to appeal to President Trump, who campaigned on closing the bilateral trade deficit with China. One of the sweeteners would be an $18 billion natural-gas purchase from Cheniere Energy Inc., people familiar with the transaction said.
The second part will involve the following.
  1. Commitment Regarding Industrial Policy
  2. Provisions to protect IP
  3. Mechanism which complaints by US companies can be addressed
  4. Bilateral meetings adjudicate disputes. If talks don't produce agreement than US can raise tariffs unilaterally
This grouping of conditions is similar to the points filled under the 301 investigation which serve the basis for initiating the tariffs. I have been reading some sources that say this discussion on this second group of broader issues could only be finalized later
The official justifications for placing the tariffs on Chinese goods is found under the March 2018 investigation submitted by the office of the President to Congress titled FINDINGS OF THE INVESTIGATION INTO CHINA’S ACTS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES RELATED TO TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, AND INNOVATION UNDER SECTION 301 OF THE TRADE ACT OF 1974. From this investigation the United States Trade Representative (USTR) place US Tariffs on Chinese goods as per Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Here is a press release by the USTR listing the reasons for placing tariffs, and the key section from the press release. Specifically, the Section 301 investigation revealed:
In the bigger context of trade relations between US and China, China is not honoring its WTO commitments, and the USTR issued its yearly report to Congress in early February about the status of China compliance with its WTO commitments. The points that served as a basis for applying Section 301, also deviate from her commitments as Clinton's Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky paving the way for a trade war. Barshefsky argues that China's back sliding was happening as early as 2006-07, and believes the trade war could have been avoided has those commitments been enforced by previous administrations.
I will provide a brief overview of WTO membership and China's process of getting into the WTO.
WTO members can be divided into two groups, first are countries that joined in 1995-97, and were members of GATT, than there are the second group that joined after 1997. China joined in 2001. There is an argument that when China joined in 2001, she faced more stringent conditions than other developing countries that joined before, because the vast majority of developing countries were members of GATT, and were admitted to the WTO based on that previous membership in GATT. Here is Brookings Institute article published in 2001 titled "Issues in China’s WTO Accession"
This question is all the more puzzling because the scope and depth of demands placed on entrants into the formal international trading system have increased substantially since the formal conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in 1994, which expanded the agenda considerably by covering many services, agriculture, intellectual property, and certain aspects of foreign direct investment. Since 1994, the international community has added agreements covering information technology, basic telecommunications services, and financial services. WTO membership now entails liberalization of a much broader range of domestic economic activity, including areas that traditionally have been regarded by most countries as among the most sensitive, than was required of countries entering the WTO’s predecessor organization the GATT.
The terms of China’s protocol of accession to the World Trade Organization reflect the developments just described and more. China’s market access commitments are much more far-reaching than those that governed the accession of countries only a decade ago. And, as a condition for membership, China was required to make protocol commitments that substantially exceed those made by any other member of the World Trade Organization, including those that have joined since 1995. The broader and deeper commitments China has made inevitably will entail substantial short-term economic costs.
What are the WTO commitments Barshefsky goes on about? When countries join the WTO, particularly those countries that weren't members of GATT and joined after 1997, they have to work toward fulfilling certain commitments. There are 4 key documents when countries make an accession to WTO membership, the working party report, the accession protocol paper, the goods schedule and service schedule.
In the working party report as part of the conclusion which specifies the commitment of each member country what they will do in areas that aren't compliant with WTO regulations on the date they joined. The problem there is no good enforcement mechanism for other members to force China to comply with these commitments. And WTO punishments are weak.
Here is the commitment paragraph for China
"The Working Party took note of the explanations and statements of China concerning its foreign trade regime, as reflected in this Report. The Working Party took note of the commitments given by China in relation to certain specific matters which are reproduced in paragraphs 18-19, 22-23, 35-36, 40, 42, 46-47, 49, 60, 62, 64, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78-79, 83-84, 86, 91-93, 96, 100-103, 107, 111, 115-117, 119-120, 122-123, 126-132, 136, 138, 140, 143, 145, 146, 148, 152, 154, 157, 162, 165, 167-168, 170-174, 177-178, 180, 182, 184-185, 187, 190-197, 199-200, 203-207, 210, 212-213, 215, 217, 222-223, 225, 227-228, 231-235, 238, 240-242, 252, 256, 259, 263, 265, 270, 275, 284, 286, 288, 291, 292, 296, 299, 302, 304-305, 307-310, 312-318, 320, 322, 331-334, 336, 339 and 341 of this Report and noted that these commitments are incorporated in paragraph 1.2 of the Draft Protocol. "
This is a tool by the WTO that list all the WTO commitment of each country in the working paper. In the goods and service schedule they have commitments for particular sectors. Here is the a press release by the WTO in September 2001, after successfully concluding talks for accession, and brief summary of key areas in which China hasn't fulfilled her commitments. Most of the commitments made by China were made to address its legacy as a non-market economy and involvement of state owned enterprises. In my opinion, I think the US government and investors grew increasingly frustrated with China, after 2007 not just because of China's back sliding, but relative to other countries who joined after 1997 like Vietnam, another non-market Leninist dictatorship. When comparing China's commitments to the WTO its best to compare her progress with those that joined after 1997, which were mostly ex-Soviet Republics.
NOTE: The Chinese media have for two decades compared any time the US has talked about China's currency manipulation or any other issue as a pretext for imposing tariffs on China to the Plaza Accords. I am very sure people will raise it here. My criticism of this view is fourfold. First, the US targeted not just Japan, but France, Britain and the UK as well. Secondly, the causes of the Japan lost decade were due largely to internal factors. Thirdly, Japan, UK, Britain and France in the 1980s, the Yuan isn't undervalued today. Lastly, in the USTR investigation, its China's practices that are the concern, not so much the trade deficit.

REASONS FOR TRUMPS UNILATERAL APPROACH

I feel that people shouldn't dismiss Trump's unilateral approach toward China for several reasons.
  1. The multilateral approach won't work in many issues such as the trade deficit, commercial espionage and intellectual property, because US and her allies have different interest with regard to these issues. Germany and Japan and trade surpluses with China, while the US runs a deficit. In order to reach a consensus means the West has to compromise among themselves, and the end result if the type of toothless resolutions you commonly find in ASEAN regarding the SCS. Does America want to "compromise" its interest to appease a politician like Justin Trudeau? Not to mention opposition from domestic interest. TPP was opposed by both Clinton and Trump during the election.
  2. You can't launch a geopolitical front against China using a newly formed trade block like the TPP. Some of the existing TPP members are in economic groups with China, like Malaysia and Australia.
  3. China has joined a multitude of international bodies, and at least in trade, these bodies haven't changed its behavior.
  4. Dealing with China, its a no win situation whether you use a tough multilateral / unilateral approach. If the US endorse a tough unilateral approach gives the impression that the US is acting like the British during the Opium War. If you take a concerted Western approach you are accused of acting like the 8 Powers Alliance in 1900.
  5. Trump was elected to deal with China which he and his supporters believe was responsible for the loss of millions manufacturing jobs when China joined the WTO in 2001. It is estimate the US lost 6 Million jobs, about 1/4 of US manufacturing Jobs. This has been subsequently advanced by some economists. The ball got rolling when Bill Clinton decided to grant China Most Favored Nation status in 1999, just a decade after Tiananmen.
  6. China hasn't dealt with issues like IP protection, market access, subsidies to state own companies and state funded industrial spying.
To his credit, Trump has said his aim was not to overthrow authoritarian governments, and that even applies to the likes of Iran. The Arab spring scared Russia and China, because the US for a brief moment placed the spread of democracy over its security interest.

UNDERSTANDING HOW THE US MAKES DECISIONS REGARDING CHINA

At this moment, China or the trade war isn't an area of great concern for the American public, among international issues it ranks lower than international terrorism, North Korea and Iran's nuclear program.
According to the survey, 39 percent of the country views China’s growing power as a “critical threat” to Americans. That ranked it only eighth among 12 potential threats listed and placed China well behind the perceived threats from international terrorism (66 percent), North Korea’s nuclear program (59 percent) and Iran’s nuclear program (52 percent). It’s also considerably lower than when the same question was asked during the 1990s, when more than half of those polled listed China as a critical threat. That broadly tracks with a recent poll from the Pew Research Center that found concern about U.S.-China economic issues had decreased since 2012.
In looking at how US conducts relations foreign policy with China, we should look at it from the three areas of most concern - economic, national security and ideology. Each sphere has their interest groups, and sometimes groups can occupy two spheres at once. Security experts are concerned with some aspects of China's economic actions like IP theft and industrial policy (China 2025), because they are related to security. In these sphere there are your hawks and dove. And each sphere is dominated by certain interest groups. That is why US policy toward China can often appear contradictory. You have Trump want to reduce the trade deficit, but security experts advocating for restrictions on dual use technology who are buttressed by people who want export restrictions on China, as a way of getting market access.
Right now the economic concerns are most dominant, and the hawks seem to dominate. The economic hawks traditionally have been domestic manufacturing companies and economic nationalist. In reality the hawks aren't dominant, but the groups like US Companies with large investment in China and Wall Street are no longer defending China, and some have turned hawkish against China. These US companies are the main conduit in which China's lobby Congress, since China only spends 50% of what Taiwan spends lobbying Congress.
THE ANGLO SAXON WORLD AND CHINA
I don't think many Chinese even those that speak English, have a good understanding Anglo-Saxon society mindset. Anglo Saxons countries, whether US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland are commerce driven society governed by sanctity of contracts. The English great philosophical contributions to Western philosophy have primarily to do with economics and politics like Adam Smith, John Locke, David Hume and Thomas Hobbes. This contrast with the French and Germans. Politics in the UK and to a lesser extent the US, is centered around economics, while in Mainland Europe its religion. When the Americans revolted against the British Empire in 1776, the initial source of the grievances were taxes.
Outside of East Asia, the rest of the World's relationship with China was largely commercial, and for United States, being an Anglosaxon country, even more so. In Southeast Asia, Chinese aren't known for high culture, but for trade and commerce. Outside Vietnam, most of Chinese loans words in Southeast Asian languages involve either food or money. The influence is akin to Yiddish in English.
Some people point to the Mao and Nixon meeting as great strategic breakthrough and symbol of what great power politics should look like. The reality is that the Mao-Nixon meeting was an anomaly in the long history of relations with China and the West. Much of China-Western relations over the last 500 years was conducted by multitudes of nameless Chinese and Western traders. The period from 1949-1979 was the only period were strategic concerns triumphed trade, because China had little to offer except instability and revolution. Even in this period, China's attempt to spread revolution in Southeast Asia was a threat to Western investments and corporate interest in the region. During the nadir of both the Qing Dynasty and Republican period, China was still engaged in its traditional commercial role. Throughout much of history of their relations with China, the goals of Britain and the United States were primarily economic,
IMAGINE JUST 10% OF CHINA BOUGHT MY PRODUCT
From the beginning, the allure of China to Western businesses and traders has been its sheer size I. One of the points that the USTR mentions is lack of market access for US companies operating in China, while Chinese companies face much less restrictions operating in the US.
This is supported by remarks by Henry Paulson and Charlene Barshefsky. As Paulson remarked
Trade with China has hurt some American workers. And they have expressed their grievances at the ballot box.
So while many attribute this shift to the Trump Administration, I do not. What we are now seeing will likely endure for some time within the American policy establishment. China is viewed—by a growing consensus—not just as a strategic challenge to the United States but as a country whose rise has come at America’s expense. In this environment, it would be helpful if the US-China relationship had more advocates. That it does not reflects another failure:
In large part because China has been slow to open its economy since it joined the WTO, the American business community has turned from advocate to skeptic and even opponent of past US policies toward China. American business doesn’t want a tariff war but it does want a more aggressive approach from our government. How can it be that those who know China best, work there, do business there, make money there, and have advocated for productive relations in the past, are among those now arguing for more confrontation? The answer lies in the story of stalled competition policy, and the slow pace of opening, over nearly two decades. This has discouraged and fragmented the American business community. And it has reinforced the negative attitudinal shift among our political and expert classes. In short, even though many American businesses continue to prosper in China, a growing number of firms have given up hope that the playing field will ever be level. Some have accepted the Faustian bargain of maximizing today’s earnings per share while operating under restrictions that jeopardize their future competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean they’re happy about it. Nor does it mean they aren’t acutely aware of the risks — or thinking harder than ever before about how to diversify their risks away from, and beyond, China.
What is interesting about Paulson's speech is he spend only one sentence about displaced US workers, and a whole paragraph about US business operating in China. While Kissinger writes books about China, how much does he contribute to both Democrats and the Republicans during the election cycle? China is increasingly makING it more difficult for US companies operating and those exporting products to China.

CONTINUED

submitted by weilim to IntlScholars [link] [comments]

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191109 (Market index 38 — Fear state)

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191109 (Market index 38 — Fear state)

https://preview.redd.it/ofi0c61nnmx31.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=c57ef91e3ce26cc1ea8ab8f0c96f17c9c5f68bf5

Malaysia To Impose Restrictions On Cash Transactions The Malaysian government plans to impose restrictions on cash transactions reports local media platform The Star. According to the publication, the move is part of efforts to combat money laundering in the country. Commenting on the plan, Datuk Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour, the deputy governor of Malaysia’s Central Bank Negara (BNM), remarked: “This is to address the abuse of physical cash used for illicit activities.” Malaysian economist, Barjoyai Bardai believes the proposed cash transaction limit in the country could boost digital currency adoption.
EU Is Working On ECB Digital Currency With Possible Progress Next Year According to Reuters, progress on the feasibility of a digital currency backed by the European Central Bank could be made in the coming months, senior officials said on Nov 8, cautioning that the project faced challenges and was for the long term.
Tunisia Issues Central Bank Digital Currency On Nov 9, the TASS news agency reported that the Central Bank of Tunisia was to be the first to release a digital currency. The ‘E-dinar’ was officially launched in the test form at the Forex Club of Tunisia, with a symbolic transfer of one dinar between the head of the central bank, Marouane El Abassi, and a representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down nearly 5% at its current price of $8,850, which marks a notable drop from its 24-hour highs of $9,300.
Prior to today’s drop, Bitcoin has been caught in a relatively tight trading range between $9,000 and $9,500 for a couple of weeks, and neither bulls nor bears had been able to incur enough strength to push the crypto out of this trading range until early this morning when bears forced it below its lower range boundary at $9,000.
In the time since its drop, BTC has shown no sign of slowing its decent, as it continued to slowly grind lower as the morning dragged on.
Review previous articles: https://medium.com/@to.liuwen

Encrypted project calendar(November 9, 2019)

CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland. HTMLCOIN (HTML): 09 November 2019 (or earlier) Mandatory Wallet Update Mandatory Wallet Update: there will be a soft fork on our blockchain. This update adds header signature verification on block 997,655. Harmony (ONE): 09 November 2019 Indian Meetups Come & meet us in person on November 9th in our meetups in Bangalore & New Delhi!

Encrypted project calendar(November 10, 2019)

Bibox Token (BIX): 10 November 2019 Bibox Summit “Bibox Summit 2019 — Maximizing Profit On Uptrend Season” from 1 PM — 5 PM (ITV) in Ho Chi Minh City. TRON (TRX): 10 November 2019 AMA w/Kucoin Co-founder “Join us on Nov 10, 6:00 PM(PST) for an AMA with TOP, Co-Founder of @kucoincom , in our English Telegram group…”

Encrypted project calendar(November 11, 2019)

PAX/Paxos Standard: Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference. Crypto.com Coin (CRO): and 3 others 11 November 2019 Capital Warm-up Party Capital Warm-up Party in Singapore. GoldCoin (GLC): 11 November 2019 Reverse Bitcoin Hardfork The GoldCoin (GLC) Team will be “Reverse Hard Forking” the Bitcoin (BTC) Blockchain…” Horizen (ZEN): 11 November 2019 (or earlier) Horizen Giveaway — Nodes Horizen Giveaway — Win Free Node Hosting! Entries before November 11th. SINOVATE (SIN): 11 November 2019 Roadmap V3 SINOVATE (SIN) Roadmap V3 will be released with new upcoming technologies and proof of concepts! 0x (ZRX): 11 November 2019 0x V3 Vote Ends “The voting period will end on November 11. Learn more about all the exciting features included in v3 below.” Akropolis (AKRO): and 4 others 11 November 2019 Kucoin Blockchain Day “KuCoin Blockchain Day Berlin 2019” from 5 PM — 9:15 PM (CET) in Berlin.

Encrypted project calendar(November 12, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13th Binance Coin (BNB) and 7 others: 12 November 2019 CMC Global Conference “The first-ever CoinMarketCap large-scale event: A one-of-a-kind blockchain / crypto experience like you’ve never experienced before.” Aion (AION) and 17 others: 12 November 2019 The Capital The Capital conference from November 12–13 in Singapore. Loom Network (LOOM): 12 November 2019 Transfer Gateway Update “If you have a dapp that relies on the Transfer Gateway, follow the instructions below to make sure you’re prepared.” Kava (KAVA): 12 November 2019 Updated Mainnet Launch “Our updated mainnet launch will be on Tuesday November 12th at 14:00 UTC.” Crypto.com Coin (CRO): 12 November 2019 Telegram AMA Live AMA with CRO COO and Kucoin’s Global Community Manager on KuCoin’s official English Telegram channel at 16:00 (UTC+8). Chainlink (LINK): and 1 other 12 November 2019 NYC Meetup “Ontology + Future of Blockchain in China Meetup Presented by Chainlink” in NYC from 6:30 PM — 8:30 PM.

Encrypted project calendar(November 13, 2019)

Fetch.ai (FET): 13 November 2019 Cambridge Meetup “Join us for a@Fetch_ai #Cambridge #meetup on 13 November @pantonarms1.” Binance Coin (BNB) and 5 others: 13 November 2019 Blockchain Expo N.A. “It will bring together key industries from across the globe for two days of top-level content and discussion across 5 co-located events…” OKB (OKB): 13 November 2019 Dnipro, Ukraine- Talks Join us in Dnipro as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour on 11 Nov. Centrality (CENNZ): 13 November 2019 AMA Meetup “Ask our CEO@aaronmcdnz anything in person! Join the AMA meetup on 13 November in Singapore.” OKB (OKB): 13 November 2019 OKEx Cryptotour Dnipro “OKEx Cryptour Ukraine 2019 — Dnipro” in Dnipro from 6–9 PM (EET). Vexanium (VEX): 13 November 2019 Dapps Incentive Program Vexanium will give an incentive for every Dapps that is submitted during this program period. Egretia (EGT): 13 November 2019 Post Consensus Invest “2019 NYC Blockchain Gaming & DeFi Party | Post Consensus Invest” in NYC from 7–9 PM. Holo (HOT): 13 November 2019 AMA “Submit your questions before the #AMA on Nov 13th @ 5PM — 5:45PM UTC”

Encrypted project calendar(November 14, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2019 BlockShow Asia Summit will be held at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore from November 14th to 15th. Binance Coin (BNB): and 4 others 14 November 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 at Marina Bay Sands Expo, Singapore from November 14–15. Basic Attention Token (BAT): 14 November 2019 London Privacy Meetup “If you’re in London on Nov. 14th, don’t miss our privacy meetup! The Brave research team, our CPO @johnnyryan, as well as @UoE_EFI Horizen (ZEN): 14 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA. IOTA (MIOTA): 14 November 2019 Berlin Meetup From Construction to Smart City: IOTA, Maschinenraum & Thinkt Digital will explain, using concrete use cases, how to gain real value from.. Dash (DASH): 14 November 2019 Q3 Summary Call “Dash Core Group Q3 2019 Summary Call — Thursday, 14 November 2019” NEO (NEO): 14 November 2019 NeoFest Singapore Meetup “Glad to have@Nicholas_Merten from DataDash as our host for #NeoFest Singapore meetup on 14th Nov!” ANON (ANON): 14 November 2019 ANONIO Wallet Upgrade In conjunction with the Echelon Update, the ANONIO wallet will also be receiving an upgrade!

Encrypted project calendar(November 15, 2019)

TRON (TRX): 15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th” Bluzelle (BLZ): 15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019. Zebi (ZCO): 15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.” OKB (OKB): 15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.” Zenon (ZNN): 15 November 2019 Awareness Fund Payout “Distribution of the fund takes place every Friday until Pillars Lock-in Phase is completed.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 16, 2019)

Bancor (BNT): and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…” NEM (XEM): 16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.

Encrypted project calendar(November 17, 2019)

OKB (OKB): 17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.

Encrypted project calendar(November 18, 2019)

Maker (MKR): 18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 19, 2019)

Lisk (LSK): 19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”

Encrypted project calendar(November 20, 2019)

OKB (OKB): 20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!

Encrypted project calendar(November 21, 2019)

Cardano (ADA): and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…” Cappasity (CAPP): 21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.” Horizen (ZEN): 21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA. OKB (OKB): 21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.” IOST (IOST): 22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech. OKB (OKB): 22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “

Encrypted project calendar(November 22, 2019)

IOST (IOST): 22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech OKB (OKB): 22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “

Encrypted project calendar(November 27, 2019)

OKB (OKB): 27 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Vinnytsia “Join us in Vinnytsia as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!” Fetch.ai (FET): 27 November 2019 London Meetup “Join us on 27 November @primalbasehq to hear an exciting progress report as we prepare for the launch of our #mainnet”

Encrypted project calendar(November 28, 2019)

Horizen (ZEN): 28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.

Encrypted project calendar(November 30, 2019)

Ethos (ETHOS): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.” Digitex Futures (DGTX): 30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.” Monero (XMR): 30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.” Chiliz (CHZ): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…” Skrumble Network (SKM): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019. Aergo (AERGO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November. Akropolis (AKRO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.” Nash Exchange (NEX): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”

Encrypted project calendar(November 31, 2019)

Wanchain (WAN): 31 December 2019 (or earlier) Wanchain 4.0 Release Wanchain 4.0, which introduces private chains integration and multi-coin wallet, released in Dec 2019. QuarkChain (QKC): 31 December 2019 (or earlier) Token Testnet Release Testnet for Multi-Native-Token and New Consensuses.

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Trading strategies and tips using the CND bot to maximise ROI.

Hi guys, since I have never been a good short-term trader I’d love to hear some of your tips and strategies when trading the indicators from the CND bot. I thought that if we all share our strategies and tips here we could all learn from each other and hopefully, everyone could increase their ROI. I love the fact that I don’t have to spend hours anymore to research through thousands of coins, instead, I only research the one I receive an indicator for and that has a high probability. I think Cindicator can be a great tool if used properly with a good strategy and sticking to it. But I need some inputs from you guys and improve my strategy.
Some questions might sound stupid for some people but hey we are all learning here.
So here are my questions where I’d be curious to see how you guys trade those indicators. Feel free to comment and add questions I’d really like to see a lot of different inputs from everyone. The more we share the more we all gain!
*Question 1: Weekly support level
Let’s say you receive the following indicator: “The cryptocurrency Ripple settled at $0.95320 at Bitfinex exchange at 9:00 PM UTC on Wednesday, February 21. What will be the minimum and the maximum price of XRP/USD from 12:01 AM UTC on Thursday, February 22 until 11:59 PM UTC on Wednesday, February 28? Resistance level: 1.11008 Support level: 0.81”
In that situation what would you guys do? Would you just put a buy order just above the support level? And a sell order just below the resistance level? If so how much above and below support/resistance? Can you even put a sell order on a coin that you haven’t even bought yet? Where would you put your stop loss sell order?
*Question 2:
Let’s say you receive this indicator: “The cryptocurrency ABC (ABC/USD) settled at 15 USD at 10:00 AM UTC at the Bitfinex exchange on Monday, February 19. In your opinion, will ABC/USD trade above 21 USD (+40%) at any time before March 20? Indicator: 65.0%” Note: This indicator has not yet expired, the USD value and token symbol have been changed.
Do you guys size your position depending on the probability of the indicator? When sizing your position do you take into consideration the possible gains as well?
I thought for myself of investing 1% of my investing funds for indicators between 65/70%; 2% - 70/75%; 3% - 75/80%; and so forth. What are your thoughts on this?
What target price do you guys put? I am still testing few strategies and wonder if for a better guarantee of winning it is not better to sell at +10% or +20% (in that scenario) and not risk of losing the gain just acquired since I don’t know of a crypto exchange that has a trailing stop. And where would you put your stop loss? -5%; -7%
*Question 3: Forex indicators, E-mini S&P 500 Futures, Gold Futures, WTI Crude Oil Futures
Has anyone here traded those indicators? Where do you trade them and what are your strategies around them? Do you use leverage? If so how much leverage? What % of your funds would you put in them?
submitted by keuspastis to Cindicator [link] [comments]

Overview of Current Market Valuations and Toyota Motors (TM)

Hello All,
Every now and then I do stock screens to see if there are any companies that would be a good value investment. Thanks to the bull market, the opportunities have been few and far between over the last year or two. However one company has consistently popped up in my screens. I initially ignored it as the company is in a sector I personally don't like to invest in due to the large capital requirements. The company is Toyota Motors (TM).
Simply put, the valuation seems too good to be true.
First off, let me show you what I am talking about. Here are the heat maps from FinViz:
Now as you can see, the general trend of the market is giving you discounts to Financials, Utilities, and Basic Materials, more specifically oil and gold.
Of those sectors, I really only like Financials as big oil has been in a downward trend over the past three years. Both Exxon and Chevron have produced less oil than the previous years and are both spending at near record high CapEx levels with no turnaround yet. I have continuously looked at both of them as I don't have any oil in my current portfolio, but haven't got myself to buy either of them.
Financials will continue to be attractive at these levels as investors still don't trust their book values since the financial crisis even though asset quality has continued to improve on a broad base. Over the next 5 years, interest rates will rise which will increase their spread which in turn increases their profitability.
For the most part, it appears healthcare, consumer goods, and services are currently overvalued.
Now, let's look at Toyota. Below is a quick multiples valuation against TM's peers. These are from Yahoo! Finance as GM isn't on FinViz for some reason.
P/E
Forward P/E
P/E/G
P/BV
As you can see, the whole sector looks cheap on a multiples basis, but of that bunch Toyota seems to win out on an overall valuation based on multiples.
Per my own investing rules, as I am a long term shareholder, I won't touch a company that has recently been bankrupt, therefore I rule out GM for any potential investments.
Now Toyota is too big of a company to do a full report on in a couple of days. However, of what little research I have done, this is what I have found.
First of all, on a macro perspective, the yen has weakened against both the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan. Over the past two years, the Dollar and Yuan have both gained over 30% to the yen and over 10% this past year. This is a great thing for a Japanese multinational as North America and Asia is TM's second and third largest markets which combined are 46% of 2013's sales.
Because of this, profitability should be higher within Toyota which is also a reason to buy them over GM or Ford as the american automakers will lose money with a strong dollar overseas.
Over the past three years, TM has a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.12%. Last year, North America saw 32.8% sales growth and Asia saw 30.22% sales growth. This compounded with the yen weakening is a one-two punch.
Due to the strong demand in both North America and Asia, Toyota has had a surge in Consolidated Net Income for Fiscal Year 2014 of 135% in which ForEx is responsible for 123% of that growth alone. In this latest quarter, Net Revenues are up 23.9% with Net Income up 118%.
Toyota's Shareholder Presentation
Margins have increased across the board with their Gross Profit increasing from last year:
TM's Gross Profit Margin
As for a quick look at the balance sheet, Toyota has been de-leveraging over the past 5 years with Total Debt / Equity of 1.25 in 2009 to 1.16 in 2013. Book Value per Share has stayed relatively flat but grew 15.14% from 2012 to 2013. Compare that to a one year increase in share price of only 12.25% I believe we have a winner.
This is only what I have found off of a couple hours looking at this tonight and have only scratched the surface as to the information on this company.
However after just a small amount of research I firmly believe this is a truly undervalued company and should be bought right away.
References: Quick Stats pulled from TM's Annual Report
EDIT Thank you all for the replies. I should state that this is just beginning due diligence and there are several assumptions with this thesis, mainly that the Yen will stay depressed at least over the next year. This type of condition is a short term catalyst only and not a long term theme. As some have mentioned already, FX has been almost entirely behind TM's profit and there are real geopolitical risks between Japan and China.
Next week I will put together another post looking more into the actual underlying company's long term performance and management's strategic plan going forward. That way we can get a glimpse of what the company might look like in the future.
Again thank you all for the kind words and the intelligent discussion around this topic.
submitted by magesform to investing [link] [comments]

For Beginners: Stablecoins: Explaining what stablecoins are and why they’re so important for the cryptocurrency industry

For Beginners: Stablecoins: Explaining what stablecoins are and why they’re so important for the cryptocurrency industry

https://preview.redd.it/0rico0vtytz11.png?width=2970&format=png&auto=webp&s=492f4edb6a613249a68f6a97c3fc70eebcac23e9
With the seemingly endless amount of coins entering the market each year, we are beginning to see various categories of digital assets emerge. One of these classifications of coins is known as stablecoins, and although you may see it as ironic that a cryptocurrency is labeled as being “stable,” that’s actually exactly what they are known for. Stablecoins make up a unique category of coins in the market that are poised to bring stability and trust back into the cryptocurrency market. With that being said, let’s go over what stablecoins are and why they are so important for the development of the cryptocurrency industry as a whole.
This is not financial investment advice. This article will touch upon key aspects of what stablecoins are and why they can help the growth of the crypto industry.

Terminology

Blockchain: The easiest way to understand blockchain is to think of it as a fully transparent and continuously updated record of the exchange of information through a network of personal computers, a system which nobody fully owns. This makes it decentralized and extremely difficult for anyone to single-handedly hack or corrupt the system, pretty much guaranteeing full validity and trust in each exchange of information.
Volatility: The rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease.
Fiat: Currency that a government has declared to be legal tender, but it is not backed by a physical commodity. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand rather than the value of the material from which the money is made.
Decentralization: Essentially, if something is centralized, there’s a single point that does all of the work involved in any given action. On the flip side, if something is decentralized, there are multiple points that do the work.
Familiarize yourself with these key terms in order to better understand what stablecoins are.

What Are Stablecoins?

To put it simply, stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged or backed by some other asset. Some forms of stablecoins are tied to assets such as the dollar or a commodity like a bar of gold or a barrel of oil. Other forms of stablecoins are backed by cryptocurrencies, or even exist as self-correcting, algorithmically-controlled systems. Essentially, stablecoins hold the promise of a half-step between traditional assets and crypto assets, taking the best from both worlds while resulting in a much more accessible and efficient form of finance.
The concept of having a stablecoin of stable currency isn’t new, as governments have been considering the implementation of this idea for quite some time now. National governments have the same motivation as crypto economies to deal in stable assets, as volatility in any kind of currency scheme can lead to wild speculation and boom and bust values. Historically, there have been a few different ways of implementing currency pegs at the national scale. Some countries just start using another country’s currency in lieu of their own as legal tender. Other governments have decided to set a fixed peg, while others determine an acceptable range and let their currency float within a range in relation to the peg.
Even within the cryptocurrency world, people have been experimenting, with mixed results, with stablecoin design and setup. Tether is one of the most prominent stablecoins, which is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency whose coins in circulation are backed by an equivalent amount of traditional fiat currencies, like the dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen, which are held in a designated bank account. Tether tokens, the native tokens of the Tether network, trade under the USDT symbol.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are backed by another asset, such as fiat money or another algorithmically-controlled system. This keeps the value of that coins stable and lowers the threat of high volatility.

How Can They Impact The Crypto industry?

By definition, stablecoins are inherently different than the rest of the cryptocurrencies in the industry, as their value is determined and derived differently. With all the criticism and skepticism surrounding the industry today, many people have pointed to stablecoins as being one of the biggest proponents in legitimizing the cryptocurrency market as a viable asset class.
Stablecoins could quickly become the universally accepted, international currency of the future. They have the potential to empower everyone to take part in an evolving crypto-economy, without compromising security and freedom. If implemented at scale, they are poised to become a foundational component of the next-generation economy. One of the biggest attacks against the cryptocurrency market is that the coins are too volatile and that they have no safe backing. Stablecoins solve both of those issues while still serving as a digital asset that can perpetuate excitement for the market as a whole.
Stablecoins solve the issue of volatility and lack of inherent value by having an actual asset which determines its value. At this point, they can serve as mediums of payment and monetary value while maintaining a stable price.

Conclusion

Sure, the cryptocurrency market may be filled with coins that are highly volatile and may not have the backing of inherently valuable assets, but what if there were coins that could satisfy all of these points? Well, with stablecoins, all of these issues are solved and the possibility of using these coins as mediums of payments becomes real. Imagine having the ability to use a cryptocurrency that is essentially valued the same as other widely-used assets like fiat money, oil, or even gold? The digital asset economy is quickly revolutionizing the world, so keep an eye out for this category of cryptocurrencies to one day become the future of the industry.
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Have you used stablecoins before? What are some of our favorite stablecoins in the market? Let us know why in the comments!
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Bitcoin price forecast, using BCG matrix

Bitcoin price forecast, using BCG matrix
BTCUSD analysis: Bitcoin forecast

Experimental analysis of BTCUSD trends by means of Boston Consulting Group matrix

Telegram channel — trading signals btc, eth, xrp
Today, I’ll go on to analyze the BTCUSD pair, as all the other altcoins depend on it.
A couple of days ago, there was quite and important fundamental event that was hardly responded by the crypto market. It is about the G20 meeting that was held in Argentina.
One of the most important agenda items was digital economy. As you know, they were discussing cryptocurrencies and the future of the crypto market. Following up on this meeting there was drafted a declaration. At first sight, it doesn’t seem to present any sensational solutions. However, the leaders of G-20 member-countries have admitted that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has a huge potential and its development is important for global economy. On the other hand, they have again emphasized the officials’ concern about poor regulation of the cryptocurrency market. Here, a particular emphasis is put on the risks, associated with money laundering and the development of illegal markets, as well as terrorist financing.
What does it mean?
It is a good signal for alarmists, who have been already disappointed in cryptocurrencies and dumped their deposits. Nobody will ruin the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies, as a type of investment assets will always exist in one form or another. What’s the point in killing the goose that lays golden eggs?! The hype around the crypto market turned into investors those, who had never thought about investing in any assets. Economic participation of people has sharply increased. There appeared whole industrial sector that became almost national idea for particular countries. It is far easier to legalize cryptocurrency and impose taxation, rather than to fight with the products of digital economy. The Group of 20 were discussing the issue of developing a taxation system for international digital services. It means only one thing - one way or another, the whole cryptocurrency market will be split into two parts; the first one will be completely transparent not only for users but for public authorities as well. There will be institutional investors and banks, along with corporations. There, the cryptocurrency will be completely integrated into banking services and become publicly available and user-friendly. Everything will be legalized and regulated. The second part will become a part of shadow economy and will be under continuous pressure from regulators and governmental authorities. The users of such cryptocurrencies will be automatically recognized as financiers of terrorism and accomplices in money laundering. The users of such cryptocurrencies will face potential imprisonment and international prosecution.
Even if it sounds unreal now, but if the G-20 are seriously discussing the cryptocurrency matter, I’m sure that the country leaders will join their efforts to bring this scenario into reality. So, I won’t be surprised if, in a few years, there will be another bitcoin fork that will be recognized by the Group of 20, included into gold and forex reserve and will become a new payment means; and the old bitcoin will become illegal and will be traded secretly.
But now, it is still an assumption and won’t come true in the new future.
I’d like to perform technical analysis of the current bitcoin market sentiment to find out what is going to be in the near future.
https://preview.redd.it/7jfpz6euou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed0798ef8938d6da6be3e33392b32d20054fa5b2
In my previous analysis a week ago, I offered a long-term forecast for the next 10 months, suggesting the major target at 2000 USD to be reached around October, 2019.
I still believe that the bottom at 2000 USD looks quite justified, in terms of both fundamental and technical analysis.
This scenario can be real in fact, if bitcoin will be moving in the downward channel with a corridor of about 3000 USD. Previously, BTC could be moving faster in a few days, but in the current crypto market situation, such a narrow range looks reasonable. However, Bitcoin has never moved as it was expected by the majority of traders.
I compared in detail the current market situation with the Bitcoin drop in 2014 and noticed some regularities that I emphasized in the last forecast for bitcoin future price.

https://preview.redd.it/ut5jhcpvou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1f0582387490922b0b9aebd34a93a8cc7703948
If you look closer, you’ll see from the chart above that the bullish trend had been speeding up since August, 2014, and reached its peak in December.
I wouldn’t try to fit this into particular dates or months, but if I try to draw a direct parallel with the Bitcoin current fall, it should start falling faster.

https://preview.redd.it/rlixmzkwou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6086ecddee8770675fdc62dafb726f544e15bad
To better explain my idea, I suggest you look at the chart above.
Many of you are likely to be familiar with the BCG matrix, is a corporate planning tool created by Boston Consulting Group. Long story short, the matrix describes the life-cycle of a product and its position in the market.
I won’t describe it in detail here. I just had an idea to analyze the price trend like a product. A trend is traded in the market like an idea, and each trader votes for it by means of their money, supporting or opposing the idea.
Based on this assumption, a trend, like a product, will pass through four stages:
  1. Entering the market - “Problem child”
  2. Developing stage - “Star”
  3. Developed stage - “Cash cow”
  4. Recession - “Poor dog”
The stage of problem child (also known as “question mark”) is the initial step. The product is just entering the market, but consumers don’t trust it, and so, it needs a large amount of investments. I marked this stage with the yellow circle in the chart above. There are two big dumps. The financial supporters of the drop were investing quite much in their bearish trend, but the buyers didn’t trust that idea and didn’t support it. Next, the product has been accepted by buyers, whose market share was quite high in the market, as well as the rate of sales, starting next. There, comes the stage of growth, the Star!
In the given example, it is the green box that highlights the zone of the steady bearish trend. It was accepted and admitted by the market, and everybody supports the idea of Bitcoin drop. Everybody likes it and thumbs it up. The next stage is the developed stage, or Cash cow. That is when investors begin to gain the yield from their product and the investment is paying off. It the blue circle in the chart above. There, it is clear that manipulators are starting to buy out and get the cheap biotin, making up their funds spent on dumps.
A sure sign of this stage is incredibly high trade volumes.
The last stage is recession, or Poor dog. Such a dog is weak and won’t live for long. The product at this stage is not appealing or demanded. Interpreting this idea, there is a clear red circle in the chart above. Market participants don’t believe in the bearish trend any longer and don’t support the idea by their money. The funders are not interested in promoting this idea as its development costs exceed the potential profit, or it may at all generate negative cash return.
Therefore, the Bitcoin bearish trend, like a product, is leaving the market, being replaced by a different idea.
https://preview.redd.it/ppki39lxou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=1edcc6d841c3d623a78ac615323620868e52a605
Drawing the same parallel with the ongoing bearish trend, you see that the Problem child stage has been already finished. Due to the strong bearish trend, this stage was lasting for a particularly long time, despite the price drop from 20 000 USD down to 6000 USD. The candlesticks clearly display strong volatility and the buyers’ resistance.
Eventually, following the long fight, market gave up and the bearish entered the stage of Star. It is clear that, due to the longtime resisting, the bulls stepped back, having lost quite much; and each crypto market participant believed in the bearish idea. The stage was developing very fast, and so, it ended quite soon. And it is clear that the BTCUSD downtrend trend is entering the Cash cow stage now.
As I’ve already said, at this stage, manipulators take an advantage of the market inertia and start “milking” the cow, as the marketing specialists call it; traders would say, trick out of hamsters’ money.
https://preview.redd.it/abdwsiizou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa8f3648a3f2a1f755f42f6e2d2deb7c640cab95
It is clear from the 15-minute BTCUSD price chart above that there are frequent buyouts; that is investors are gaining profits from the invested cash. Currently, while weak hands are losing their positions, the whales are buying out cheap bitcoins. It will go on until it becomes clear that the idea of the Bitcoin drop has been finished, and the bears don't have any more power to press the market down.
Most likely, at this stage, manipulators will repeat the same trick and start selling the bitcoins, they’ve already bought, to create stronger panic. People are extremely nervous, and so, manipulators won’t have to dump much.
https://preview.redd.it/itl4gyr0pu221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c6943a6a2bd554f1e9e7b44db7fb599c9abe263
If you gain look at the monthly BTCUSD price chart above, you see that the next wave is likely to start in February, 2019. Based on the depth of the plunge, the level at 2000 USD is such an irresistible barrier, which many will start from. I assume that manipulators anticipate this situation and will make their final buyout not going as low as this level. In the volume profile chart, it will look like a hump that I outlined by the red ark. After that, the bearish trend will start exhausting, amid trading flat and weak attempts to draw the price up to 4000 USD. The Bitcoin downtrend will enter the stage of Poor dog.

https://preview.redd.it/n8lplvt1pu221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=955ff6e177191986710e731e2c5158de87b115ac
This period will be dangerous because of extremely low trade volumes, allowing the manipulators to perform various tricks and attempts to crash the market in order to buy more bitcoins at the lowest price level. There is likely to be another slide down before the bearish trend of 2018-2019 will finally end. The final drop is likely to be followed by a new idea, supporting the BTCUSD growth.
The whole cycle will start from the beginning. First, funders will heat the market up, selling the idea to hamsters. Next, supported by the market natural growth, they will launch the rocket up rather high, where they’ll start gaining cash. But that is another story; it is called Bitcoin uptrend of 2019-20??
Unfortunately, the manipulators haven’t yet finished developing their bearish trend, and we’ll have to wait.
That is my updated BTCUSD global scenario.
I wish you good luck and good profits!

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General info and list of exchanges for X8X Token (X8X)

Ultimate crypto safe haven! Finally, Securing Value in Crypto is simple. X8X Token holders are granted a 0% fee for issuing X8Currency, a 100% fiat & gold backed Token.
Token holders are the gatekeepers!
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What is X8X? X8X is an Ethereum pure utility Token, functioning as a Key for issuing X8Currency. To exchange X8Currency for fiat ($/€) with 0% fee you will need to hold a corresponding amount of X8X.
X8X TOKEN SPECIFICATION Address: 0x910Dfc18D6EA3D6a7124A6F8B5458F281060fa4c Token Symbol: X8X Decimals: 18
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Utility Token Token is used as a key to access services of issuing or exchanging the X8Currency at the Issuer.
Limited Cap There will be only 100.000.000 Tokens issued in the TGE, later mining is not supported.
Opportunity X8X holders will be able to obtain their own X8Currency or distribute this right to others on Online Exchanges.
Legislation compliant The X8X Token is issued by a Swiss-based company, approved by the Swiss Regulatory Authorities.
X8 Project - Dual Token Model A revolutionary new store of value for the distributed and traditional economy brought to you by the ultimate currency. The X8 Project developed two Ethereum based Tokens: X8Currency that is fully backed with 8 fiat (cash) currencies + gold and X8X Utility Token that functions as a key to the issuance and exchange process of X8C with 0% fee.
What is X8Currency (X8C)? X8Currency is an Ethereum Token, 100% backed in 8 fiat (Cash) Currencies & Gold. Each Token is represented with assets deposited on bank accounts. Assets are actively managed by the propriety software, Automatic Reserve Management AI. X8C can only be issued or exchanged for fiat with X8X Utility Tokens.
fiat-gold X8Currency Facts:
100% backed with Cash & Gold assets are actively managed by proved and tested AI risk management platform ARM the most stable Crypto Currency 100% exchangeable for 8 fiat Currencies (Cash) at the Issuer for 0% fee with X8X Tokens PROVEN PROVEN Risk management AI developed over 10 years for traditional FinTech, $1B in transactions since 2015.
SAFE SAFE Non-leveraged reserves in top 8 fiat currencies and gold provide unparalleled safety.
LIQUID LIQUID Fiat currency foundation enables daily volume in billions without affecting the price.
SECURE SECURE Triple-redundant Swiss architecture and gold reserves fully utilise the advantages of the Swiss financial ecosystem.
verified Our business partner verifies that this chart represents the holdings of a live account where all trades were executed by ARM AI. View reference here.
The ARM Portfolio risk management AI, which operates the reserves of the X8 currency, was developed over 10 years. It has been operational since 2015 and has generated a transaction volume of over $1 Billion for clients in the traditional financial industry.
8-Currencies-ARM-AI Fiat in X8 brings vast liquidity which can support speedy large transactions with little to no price impact. That means that X8 can scale globally and provide a sustainable solution as a financial system for more than 3,5bn people.
Together with friendly nature of X8 market operations, all participants in the value chain benefit from this constructive system.
X8 leverages the benefits of the Swiss financial ecosystem. Fiat funds deposited in the Swiss UBS AG, will be insured by SwissRE AG and audited daily by JP Fund Services. A store of gold currency in the safest certified storages outside the banking system serves as additional reserve for X8 currency.
Swiss-setup Road map
Team The team behind the X8 Currency blockchain product.
Gregor is behind some of the main design features of ioNectar platform. Gregor combined natural investment perspective with advanced technology capabilities of today into a winning philosophy match. His accumulated experience comes from working as portfolio manager in institutional environment, advising funds, HNWIs and specialists in foreign exchange and other markets.
GREGOR KOŽELJ CEO / Founder Tomaz with his long-term experience in business is responsible for executing the Sales strategy and tactics. The focus is to drive the business forward in creating stronger relationships, converting more prospects in gaining potential clients, increasing sales, creating operational efficiency, and lastly creating a fun and motivational environment.
TOMAŽ LEPOŠA CSO His experience with entrepreneurship, business organization and sales management has given him a valuable insight into business processes and development. His approach to team management and integration makes business operation a smooth and exciting experience.
ALY KULAUZOVIĆ Business development Rudolf Ströbl is a financial expert and program-developer with over 20 years of experience in various projects involving precious metals, options, equities and digital currencies. He has also developed models and algorithms in the Forex Markets. Currently he is the Managing Director of FX & Project Management GMBH in Switzerland. RUDOLF P. STRÖBL Infrastructure Francesca Greco has been a board member of several Private Equity Funds. Her focus are projects related to energy and telecommunications. She has been following closely the development of cutting-edge technologies of great potential. She is currently part of Green Brain Technologies team, where she is in charge of Government Relations and Regulatory Affairs.
FRANCESCA GRECO Legal Lenart manages and supervises legal aspects of the company's business. With experience at law office, he finds working in the area of finance an opportunity to expand his skills and understanding of legal dimensions of finance.
LENART KMETIČ Communications & Legal support Phil is an expert problem solver with a background in finance and communications. He has been a most welcome addition to the team, especially in terms of strategy and sharpening message clarity. He has more than 20 years of active experience in bringing together businesses from Western, Central and Eastern Europe by means of eliminating cultural differentiation.
PHIL LAWRENCE Communications An IT expert with years of participation in the world of cryptocurrencies. His experience in computer programming and knowledge of IT is a valuable contribution to the company. The products of ioNectar gave him an opportunity to employ his skills in a new and exciting way. He is also responsible for ICO communication.
ALEN OBERSTAR Communications With background in social sciences and focus on collapse of complex systems, he welcomed the opportunity to explore issues of financial stability. His passion for research led him to become one of the main contributors to the company's xfeed. He is also in charge of TGE communication.
DAVID PREŽELJ Communications Urban is a long-time cryptocurrency enthusiast with a passion for ICO/TGE research. With his expertise in developing and leading teams he has developed a strategic plan to achieve the successful launch of the X8 TGE project. His strategic vision has assisted in bringing together the existing talents of the X8 team in a coherent manner.
URBAN ALJANČIČ TGE / ICO project manager Simon is a seasoned computer expert with an extensive range of programing skills in different computer languages. As the CTO of ioNectar he knows the area of the platform client and manages technological releases of the product. He is creativity driven with insight in new products development and is behind different original aspects of the platform.
SIMON HOHLER CTO Ervin is a specialist in IT. He brings together his broad technical proficiency from computer science and manages all main IT administration perspectives of ioNectar. Work in specialized software and electronics product solutions is his passion which he has been following. Through persistent expansion of his ability Ervin proved many times he is an IT authority.
ERVIN MARGUČ CIO A computer programmer proficient in several computer languages. He is involved in developing the key components of the ioNectar technology. He is eager to use his knowledge to build bridges between blokchain technology and the world of traditional finance.
ERGIM RAMADAN IT Sofia is in charge of visual presentations and design strategies at ioNectar. The dedicated and enthusiastic team around her created the right environment for her to express her artistic sensibilities and passion for aesthetics in every aspect of the company's presentations.
SOFIA KULAUZOVIĆ Corporate look & design Advisory Board The team behind the X8 Currency blockchain product.
Peter Kristensen is the CEO of JP Integra LLC US, an international finance service group providing administrative and management services to owners and managers of international private capital. PETER KRISTENSEN Financial specialist Olaf Chalmer is a financial advisor with decades of experience in the banking sector who, among other things, offers guidance to investors in financial sector. Currently he is the president of the Swiss Management, Ltd, a consulting company oriented towards clients from Eastern Europe. OLAF CHALMER B2B placement A progressive investment professional with more than 2 decades of experience in top level banks. Mikkel is advising globally on interest rate and FX risk and manages alpha driven G10 portfolios. He is running independent trading & advisory business, is also a specialist in market making and sits on several investment management boards. MIKKEL THORUP Foreign exchange field Marcus von Goetz is a seasoned bondspecialist and trader. During his career he held key bondstrading positions at several prominent financial institutions. He is also a financial advisor for larger market participants. Currently his expertise is available to institutional clients and venture capital entrepreneurs through VG&S Business Development. MARCUS VON GOETZ Business development With a background in finance and an enthusiasm for blockchain technology attorney Peter Merc PhD is the ideal legal consultant for TGEs. He is a member of the supervisory board of Slovenian systemic bank and cofounder of Lemur Legal, a legal company promoting digital transformation. He helps transform TGEs in legally compliant enterprises. PETER MERC, PH.D. Legal advice Simon Cocking is a seasoned business mentor to TGEs and a senior editor at Irish Tech News. He is also an experienced public speaker at events including TEDx and Web Summit. He is a crypto connoisseur and has to date successfully advised and mentored 18 TGEs. He has also founded six prosperous companies. SIMON COCKING Digital Marketing Branko Drobnak is a former investment banker with more than 25 years of experience in finance and entrepreneurship. This background combined with his enthusiasm for ICO research and investment provides valuable insights to the X8 project. BRANKO DROBNAK Strategic advice
EXCHANGE LIST
Binance
Huobi
Kucoin
Bibox
Qryptos
Satoexchange
BIGone
Bitrue
Bilaxy
Bit-Z
Linkcoin
SECURE WALLET
Ledgerwallet
Trezor
submitted by icoinformation to X8XToken [link] [comments]

Looking for suggestions to secure my family’s financial future. (~$100K to allocate, earning ~$50K/yr after taxes)

Edit: TL;DR - wall of text explaining my current finances, also asking if it’s the right time to enter the housing market (and how I might protect myself if I do so). I’m very cash-heavy and looking for ideas to diversify and grow into retirement, while ensuring my wife and kid are taken care of as well.
I realize there are many different options for how to save and plan for retirement. I think I’ll be just fine, but I also recognize that I have a lot of room for improvement. More than my own personal security, I want to provide as much as possible for my wife and child, both of whom I expect to outlive me by many years.
Now, I would never share this kind of detail with someone who knows who I am irl, hence the throwaway. As far as non-immediate family and acquaintances know, I’m living paycheck to paycheck, and I’d like to keep it that way.
Some background information about me:
I’m 35 years old, serving on active duty in the US military, and I’ve been in for a little over 12 years. I’ll be eligible to retire in about 8 years, and a rough conservative estimate is that I’ll receive about $2,000/month retirement pay starting in my early-mid 40s. The plan is to continue working after I separate until, well... until I’m ready to stop. Who knows when I’ll feel too old to work? 55? 65? 85???
The idea is to have the financial freedom to “officially” retire when I’m ready to so, no sooner and no later.
I’m married and I have one kiddo.
The wife makes a pretty decent paycheck atm, but she’ll soon be looking for work when we relocate to our next assignment. She has about $15K saved up right now.
I transferred my Post-911 GI bill to the kid to help offset the cost of college, and because Uncle Sam already so generously paid for my own education while I’ve been on active duty. It would be a waste to use the Bill for myself. Still, I’d like to set aside at least enough to match it or fill the gap up to a Doctorate (just in case the kid wants to pursue that level of education- no pressure lol). The GI Bill should cover a substantial part of the first 3 years, beginning sometime around the year 2030, but I could potentially be paying as much as half of the cost of a 4-year degree, and likely most of any education beyond that. Student loans aren’t all bad, but if I can put my kid through college without having to take out a loan, that would be fantastic.
So here’s where my finances sit right now:
I’ve calculated my compensations for the next year, and a conservative post-taxes estimate is that I’ll bring home about $50K. I don’t expect that figure to change whole lot over the next 4 years at least. I’m sure my wife will find gainful employment again after we move, but I don’t have enough information to forecast what her earnings will be, so I’ll simply leave it out for now.
I’ve done a lot of research into the cost of living at our next assignment, and I keep pretty solid records of spending. Based on our current expenses, and a conservative adjustment accounting fo the location change. I expect to reliably save an average of $1,800 per month out of my paycheck. That’s about a 40% decrease in annual savings compared to the last 2 years, during which time I received some special pay and a bonus.
My family budget plan for 2018 allows for about $29K in expenses total, which sounds tight for 2 adults and a child (and it is tight), but I also know it’s easily doable. I’ll adjust that target as we settle into the new place over the next several months, and go from there.
Whatever the wife is able to earn after we move, can go straight to the bottom line. I hesitate to forecast my capital gains from investments based on past performance, because it really has been an exceptional few years. Besides, I have yet to ever withdraw from my brokerage account. All dividends and gains from closing positions has gone right back into the pot.
Investments:
I have $46K in my brokerage account. Roughly 50/50 cash and stocks (individual stocks and ETFs/ETNs etc). Here’s my current portfolio if anyone cares: MO, AAPL, WFC, AMD, BND, IAU, WMT, ARNC, SPY, XIV- roughly equal parts for all of those. They’re a mixture of speculative short-term and div-yielding long-term holds. The half I have sitting in cash is so I can quickly sell calls/average-down/BTFD whenever the next market correction/crash/recession comes. I’m adding about $1K/month to this account via automatic deposit, which I typically split between cost-price-averaging into my longs, and into my cash reserve. I balance my holdings mostly by adding to underperforming positions when I expect a rebound, and not by selling stock unless I’ve held the shares for more than a year. I also try to keep my cash balance roughly equal to the market value of my stocks for the reasons mentioned above (and so I can act if I see an opportunity for a nice swing trade).
I have a little over $20K in an interest-earning checking/debit account. This is where the majority of my paycheck lands, and it’s where the majority of my bills come out.
I have $15K in USD hard cash. That’s more than I need, to be sure. It’s mostly leftovers from when I sold one car and bought another. I’ll eventually deposit it into a bank I suppose lol.
I also have $11K in another checking account which I feed through a credit card, paying the balance off monthly. I’ve been using the credit card to buy gas and pay for other travel expenses. I don’t need a cc to do that, but it’s an easy way to build up my credit score and it helps whenever I need to rent a car or something.
Then there’s the $6K sitting in a credit union Roth IRA I opened and sort of forgot about. It barely earns interest at all and I can’t for the life of me figure out how to use it.
I own exactly 1 BTC I bought on a whim this summer. It’s hard for me to watch, because it moves around so much in value. Worth about $4.5K today. Other assets I can think of off the top of my head:
~ $4K in physical gold/silver. I guess it’s my hedge against society collapse or whatever lol. I have one of those 50g combi-bars that can be broken into smaller ingots and then a bunch of 1oz silver coins.
~ $2K in various foreign currencies, mostly Sterling. This was left over from when I spent some time in the UK pre-brexit vote. I’m sort of bag-holding it until I can exchange it back to USD for less of a loss.
On top of that, I have exactly zero debt. If I were forced to liquidate all of my assets not mentioned above, I’m confident I could come up with another ~ $40K (That’s if you figure a >50% emergency sale depreciation... I have 4 cars, 3 of which would be considered collector’s items and about another $15K in Snap-on tools + all the other random shit I own)
I realize my money allocations don’t make a lot of sense right now, but I’m an aggressive saver and the cash tends to pile up quickly. That’s a nice problem to have I guess.
One concern I have, is seeing my un-invested money take a big hit from inflation. I’m also a little worried about my bullish stock portfolio, but my plan is to build/hold it for another 15 years or so, and then slowly increase my exposure to bonds as I get into my 40s and 50s. Assuming I can stick to my long-term investing strategy, I’m hoping to be able to ride out any major correction or recession.
A major goal of mine is to buy a house. Thanks to the military lifestyle living overseas and frequent relocations though, I haven’t really been in a position to do so. Soon I’ll be moving to a stateside base, but looking at the housing market there, I’m frankly scared to buy right now. Houses in the local area have nearly doubled in just a few years, and I’d rather not spend the next 2 decades upside down in a mortgage if things suddenly take a turn for the worse. The valuations just don’t make sense to me compared with the rental market, and I suspect many of the land owners are deeply indebted in a market that feels pretty hot imo.
So there you have it. My personal finances in a nutshell. Not that I’m in financial trouble or anything, but I would love to hear any suggestions or pointers you smarties might have to offer.
I suppose some specific questions might include:
To recap my holdings:
Any/all ideas and criticisms are welcome.
Thanks for reading!
submitted by yet_another_throwy to personalfinance [link] [comments]

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